The Canadian dollar was little changed against its currency counterparts, like the US dollar, after the nation’s annual inflation rate slipped below the Bank of Canada’s target rate in September. Like other advanced economies, restoring price stability had been a long journey. But will the good times last?
According to Statistics Canada, the annual inflation eased to 1.6% last month, down from 2% in August. This was below the consensus estimate of 1.8%. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.4% compared to the market forecast of -0.2%.
Government data attributed the sharp decline to plummeting gasoline prices, which helped lower transportation costs. Shelter costs remained elevated at 8.2%, while food prices rose to 2.8%.
Core inflation, which omits the volatile food and energy categories, edged up to 1.6% from 1.5%. The core CPI was unchanged from August to September.
Experts say the number could trigger a massive interest rate cut at next week’s Bank of Canada policy meeting.
“Canadian headline inflation decelerated by more than expected last month, lowering the hurdle to an outsized rate cut at next week’s Bank of Canada meeting,” Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, told CBC News. “We’re still not convinced the Canadian economy needs an emergency-scale response, but there is little question today’s data will lower the downside risks associated with moving more aggressively.”
Canadian government bond yields tanked across the board, with the benchmark five- and ten-year yields plunging to 2.93% and 3.15%, respectively. The one-month bill shed six basis points to 3.97%, while the 30-year bond erased 5.3 basis points to 3.301%.
Since May, the Bank of Canada has reduced the policy rate from 5% to 4.25%. Economists anticipated that the central bank would lower the key target rate to a range of 2.25% and 3.25%
The USD/CAD currency pair was little changed at 1.3798 at 16:36 GMT on Tuesday. The EUR/CAD tumbled 0.13% to 1.503 from an opening of 1.5050.

