The NZD/USD currency pair’s daily chart is rather interesting. Prices have tried to break up, but the strength of the US dollar has stopped this from happening.

Mixed data from the US and worries about the market before the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole retreat keep pair bears on edge. July US Durable Goods Orders dropped to 0.0%, lower than the 0.6% expected and 2.2% seen in June. Orders for non-defence capital goods (excluding aircraft) went up from 0.9% to 0.4%. In July, pending home sales were -1.0% MoM, less than the -4.0% expected and the -8.9% in June (which was changed from -8.6%). The annual drop in pending home sales was 19.9%, down from 20%.

Even though New Zealand retail sales were low, the pair is also weighed down by how careful they were before Jackson Hole.

The growth of New Zealand’s retail sales from Q1 to Q2 was -2.3%, down from -0.5%. The year-over-year change went from 0.0% to -1.6%.

The first partial indicator for New Zealand’s GDP in the second quarter gave bears hope and gave RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr more work on Thursday. Mixed data from New Zealand has made people doubt the RBNZ’s rate hikes, which gives bears on the NZD/USD reason to be hopeful.

The calendar will decorate with the second version of US Q2 GDP and US PCE for the period to see if it gives the economy a new boost.

Conclusion

From New Zealand’s point of view, the USD’s comeback makes a lot of sense. It’s late in the cycle here so early winners may be early losers, and there are many risks to global growth. It is not a good situation for commodity exporters.