The NZD/USD has increased significantly in the Asian and the European trading session and has jumped above the 0.7226  yesterday’s high, but unfortunately the bears have stepped in again and have dragged the rate down. The rate has decreased significantly in the last few hours as the US dollar index has squeezed a little and has climbed again above the 101.00 psychological level, the index is pressuring an important dynamic resistance level, remains to see if we’ll have a bounce or a break, a further increase will force the dollar to appreciate versus all its rivals.

The greenback has managed to increase again in the last hours because we had some positive data from the United States in the afternoon, the CB Consumer Confidence rose from 111.6 to 114.8 points, beating the 111.3 estimate, while the Chicago PMI surged from 50.3 to 57.4 points, exceeding the 53.2 estimate. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories dropped by 0.1% in January, despite that the economists have forecasted a 0.5% growth, the indicator has managed to drop after the 0.9% growth in December 2016, while the Richmond Manufacturing Index surged from 12 to 17 points, beating the 10 point estimate.

The Statistics New Zealand is to release the Overseas Trade Index later, the indicator is expected to increase by 4.1%, but I don’t think that will have a significant impact.

You can see that the rate has decreased in the last hours and could erase the all today’s gains, could challenge the 38.2% retracement level if the USDX will have enough energy to climb higher in the coming hours.

The pair is consolidating around the 38.2% retracement level and remains under pressure as long as is trading much below the first warning line (WL1) of the major descending pitchfork, could approach the third warning line (WL3) of the former major ascending pitchfork. Maybe will be better to stay away from his pair right now because we don’t have a clear direction and we don’t have a trading opportunity, we could have a selling signal if the rate will drop and will stabilize below the 38.2% retracement level.