The NZD/USD has increased unexpectedly today, the pair has reached fresh new highs, but the USD has received a helping hand from the Uited States economic data, the greenback has posted little gains versus all its counterparts, but the USDX remains somehow under selling pressure on the short term after has failed to take out a major dynamic resistance, most likely will have high volatility on this pair tomorrow after the FOMC Statement, the US is to release other high impact data tomorrow which could bring action on the major pairs, but remains to see the direction.
The Kiwi has increased today, even if the New Zealand Trade Balance has fallen from 348M to 127M, the trade surplus has fallen below the 128M forecast, but the NZD wasn’t impressed by this drop, the NZD/USD has increased because the US dollar index has dropped sharply.
The NZD/USD is challenging the lower median line of the ascending pitchfork, the price has jumped above this dynamic resistance, but unfortunately, the US data has pushed the price right below this upside obstacle, the pair has also fallen below the 0.7052 horizontal resistance, so any rejection here could send the price down again.
The rate has managed to close the former gap down from last week and the price was somehow expected to increase on the short term, but a drop somewhere below the 0.7020 level will attract more sellers again, which will drive the rate toward the 0.6896 level again.
We could have a very strong bearish signal if the rate will test he confluence area formed at the intersection of the lower median line (LML) of the ascending pitchfork with the upper median line of the short descending pitchfork, the pair could drop sharply if the rate will stay below the mentioned confluence area and below the upper median line of the descending pitchfork.
The perspective will remain bearish as long as the rate is trapped inside the descending pitchfork’s, the last bearish momentum was expected because the price has failed once again to close above the median line of the ascending pitchfork, has retested the major dynamic resistance and then has plunged aggressively.