EUR/USD fell below 1.0200 on Friday morning in the U.S.

EUR/USD is on the back after the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report showed 528K jobs in July, which is more than what analysts predicted, 250K jobs. The reading for June was 398K. (from 384K).

The significant Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.5% month over month and by 5.2% compared to the same month in 2021. The participation rate dipped to 62.1 per cent.

And FOMC policymakers disagreed with the market’s prediction that the Fed would stop tightening in 2023, but investors are still sceptical about the September rate hike. The CME Group FedWatch Tool says there is a 40% chance of a 75-basis-point increase at the next meeting.

1.0230 (Fibonacci 38.2 per cent retracement) represents a temporary barrier before 1.0260. (100-period SMA). If the price stays below the latter for four hours, it could be a good sign and start a rally to 1.0300. (psychological level, Fibonacci 50 per cent retracement).

There is the first technical support at 1.0200, where the 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 4-hour chart meet. If the pair falls below that level and uses it as resistance, bearish targets could be 1.0150 (Fibonacci 23.6 per cent retracement of the previous drop) and 1.0100 (psychological level, static level).

Conclusion

If the pair trades below 1.0927, the long-term trend should be down.