South Korean Won Gains Despite Mixed Economic Data

The South Korean won is posting modest gains against the US dollar on the first trading session of December, despite disappointing economic data this week. From slumping retail sales to worse-than-expected trade numbers, the South Korean economy came under pressure in October and November.

According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy (MOTIE), the country’s trade surplus widened to $5.93 billion in November, up from $3.31 billion in the same time a year ago. Exports rose 4% to $45.81 billion, but the market had penciled in an increase of 6.8%. Imports fell 2.1% to $39.88 billion, falling short of the median estimate of 0.2%.

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In the third quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 2.1%, coming in better than the 1.9% estimate. The economy still slumped at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the July-to-September period.

What about other key macro data?

The IHS Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) hit 52.9 in November, up from 51.2 in October – anything above 50 indicates expansion. However, industrial production slipped 1.2% in October, and manufacturing production contracted 2.2. Construction output also declined 8.9% year-over-year.

Retail sales decreased 0.9% in October, down from the 1.6% gain in Septeber.

Inflation, foreign exchange reserves, and the current account deficit data will be released throughout the week.

South Korea continues to witness a resurgence in the number of coronavirus cases. Over the last month, COVID-19 infections have been on the rise, topping 500 in a single day. The recent rise has led to speculation that health authorities will institute new lockdown measures, even though the country’s situation is a lot better than other places.

In total, Seoul has reported fewer than 35,000 cases, with a death toll of just 526.

The bond market was in a sea of red on Tuesday, with the benchmark three-year bond down 0.001% to 0.98%. The 10-year bond dropped 0.006% to 1.65%, while the 30-year bond slid 0.003% to 1.73%. The KOSPI stock index was flat at 2,634.25.

The USD/KRW currency pair fell 0.32% to 1,106.22, from an opening of 1,109.89, at 20:08 GMT on Tuesday. The EUR/KRW rose 0.88% to 1,335.04, from an opening of 1,323.52.

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