Soybean Struggles for Direction As USDA Reports Deteriorating Crop Conditions

Soybean futures are rising on Tuesday after the US government published a bullish report on domestic crop conditions. Soybean was one of the few commodities to record gains during the trading session, leading to speculation that perhaps the industry’s boom is beginning to subside. Can soybean continue its recovery, or is this an opportunity to take profits?

September soybean futures surged $0.11, or 0.81%, to $13.6875 per bushel at 16:06 GMT on Tuesday on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT). Soybean prices have slumped in recent weeks, sliding more than 11% since April. Year-to-date, soybean is still up close to 5%, thanks to the 52% gain over the last 12 months.

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According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) 56% of domestic soybean crops were rated in good-to-excellent conditions. This is down 2% from the previous week. The USDA also reported that 64% of the domestic corn crops were rated in good-to-excellent condition, down from 65% last week. Plus, 9% of spring wheat conditions were given a rating of good-to-excellent, down from 11% a week earlier.

The deterioration of soybean and corn crops were a result of hot and dry weather in key producing areas. In addition, there are worries about falling export demand for US soybean and wheat inventories, which is currently placing a gap on gains.

Reportedly, China’s soybean imports are projected to slide toward the end of 2021 following a first half that posted all-time highs of 48.95 million tons. This is being driven by a decline in profitability levels in the hog sector. It could be terrible news for soybean prices since Beijing accounts for nearly two-thirds of global soybean imports, so a reduced appetite for the crop could trigger immense volatility.

“Soymeal demand is reaching rock bottom. Basis is now at minus 120 yuan (in northern China), lowest this year. Demand might come back up, but it sucks now,” said a manager with a crusher in northern China that processes two cargoes of soybeans on average per month, according to The Globe and Mail. “We can’t really place orders to make purchases. The volume of U.S. soybean exports will surely be affected.”

Meanwhile, in other agriculture news, one of Russia’s largest wheat producing and exporting areas, reported a record wheat harvest of 12.4 million tons.

In other hard commodities, September corn futures tumbled $0.0375, or 0.69%, to $5.43 per bushel. September wheat futures shed $0.04, or 0.59%, to $6.73 a bushel. September coffee futures plummeted $0.07, or 3.37%, to $2.008 per pound.

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