The Turkish lira’s modest rebound appears to be over after the latest inflation numbers soared in October. The lira has been mostly in freefall this year on surging inflation and unorthodox monetary policy. Without sensible policy endeavors, it is unlikely that the lira could avert a currency crisis.
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI), the annual inflation rate advanced 19.89% in October, up from the 19.58% increase in September. The market had penciled in an increase of 20.4%.
On a monthly basis, the consumer price index (CPI) advanced to a three-year high of 2.39% last month, up from 1.55% in the previous month.
Producer prices were also sky-high in October, with the producer price index (PPI) skyrocketing 46.31% year-over-year, up from 43.96% in the previous month.
The PPI also climbed 5.24% year-over-year in October, up from 1.55% in September.
Most of the upward price pressure was driven by food, hotel and leisure, housing, and transportation.
Will this prompt the central bank to finally raise interest rates, or will the institution continue to slash rates to support economic growth and defy conventional policymaking?
“The small drop in core inflation and political pressure on the central bank means that further interest rate cuts lie in store,” said Jason Tuvey, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, in a note.
On Monday, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) eased to 51.2 in October, down from 52.5 in September. While this was the fifth consecutive month of growth in the PMI, there was easing in output, new orders, inputs, and export orders amid currency fluctuations. Output inflation also soared to a three-year high.
For the rest of the week, foreign exchange reserves and the Treasury Cash Balance will be released.
The USD/TRY currency pair rose 1.28% to 9.7262, from an opening of 9.6066, at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday. The EUR/TRY climbed 1.31% to 11.2656, from an opening of 11.1238.

