U.S dollar index long-term technical analysis

No rate-hike and no confirmation of further rate-cut delay the bearish leg in the U.S dollar index. At the current time, the index traded near 98.25. In the previous month, it tumbled sharply as the Fed hinted for possible rate-cut and will adjust accordingly.

The market mostly waiting for the trade talk event between the U.S and China. Without a trade deal, the planned tariff against China products will be implemented on 15th December. We think the index might trade sideways for now until the announcement of trade talk result.

New Month

Monthly chart

The index reversed in the previous month and tumbled sharply. However, there is no change to the outlook of the index which continue inside the bullish channel. In the current month, the index bounce from the bottom of the channel and looking to close the month on the positive side.

As long as there is no break out of the channel then the U.S dollar index will continue its uptrend.

Weekly chart

98.25 is the major level to watch at the current time as the U.S dollar index recovered its losses this month. It seems the index stuck near the level for several weeks and might continue to stick near it. We think the direction is bullish and another bullish close above 98.25 could trigger upside in the index.

Daily chart

On the daily chart, bull traders are waiting for the forming of a higher high. Without a higher high on the chart then the U.S dollar index in the risk of starting a new bearish leg. If the index move lower then the daily SMA 200 will become the support to watch.

Trade plan (For U.S dollar pair)

November soon will end and the index currently sticks near 98.25 level. It seems the index might settle near the level by the end of the month. Traders will get further clue in the coming month as both China and the U.S might reach a phase one deal on trade negotiations.

U.S dollar index next direction will depend on the result of the trade talk.