U.S dollar index long-term technical analysis

Interest-rate was the main issue that weighs the U.S dollar index last month. However, the situation will switch to the trade war issue between U.S-China this month. Traders, investors, and central banks are watching the high-level trade negotiations this month.

The global market direction will be determined by the result of trade negotiations between the U.S and China this month. Traders might want to hold positions before the event take place.

New Month

Monthly chart

It is up to the bull to press the index further upward or start a correction from the top of the channel. 99.40 is the major resistance to watch for now. If the index could move higher then 100.00 will become the big resistance to surpass. We think a correction is due but without any bearish close on the monthly chart suggest the index still has more upside.

Weekly chart

The index perfectly moves upside inside the bullish channel and there is no change to the situation yet. We have a bearish pin bar pattern last week. No confirmation to the pattern yet this week. The index might continue upward and test 99.40 – 100.00 area without any bearish follow-through.

Daily chart

The bar has the upper hand since the rejection from 99.40 resistance. U.S dollar index pressed lower until it reaches the trendline. Today, the index attempting to bounce from the trendline. If the index could bounce from the trendline then we could expect a 99.40 resistance test soon.

Trade plan (For U.S dollar pair)

Similar to last month’s situation, the U.S dollar index direction still hard to guess. The major event on the U.S-China trade war situation will get an update soon. Both parties will have high-level trade negotiations this month. The index direction will depend on the result of the meeting.