US Crude Flirts With $80 on Lower Dollar, Hurricane Ian

Crude oil futures are surging on Tuesday as Hurricane Ian makes its way to the Southern United States and threatens energy output in the region. Oil prices have been in selloff mode, with crude falling to its lowest level in eight months. But is this a temporary bounce, or can crude prices climb back above $80 again?

October West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures advanced $1.77, or 2.32%, to $78.49 per barrel at 13:51 GMT on Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI prices are down about 7% this week, paring their year-to-date gain to just 4%. In the third quarter, US crude has tumbled close to 30%.

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Brent, the international benchmark for oil prices, is flirting with $85 again. December Brent crude futures surged $2.07, or 2.5%, to $84.93 per barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange.

The biggest factor on Tuesday is the strengthening of Hurricane Ian that is soon expected to make landfall on Florida’s western coast. Companies, including Chevron and BP, have already confirmed they had shut in production at several Gulf of Mexican platforms as they prepare for impact.

Oil also took advantage of the reprieve in the greenback as the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.35% to 113.71, from an opening of 114.10. The index has soared nearly 19% this year on chaos in the global financial markets. This has been bearish for oil and other assets since a stronger buck is bad for dollar-denominated commodities.

Meanwhile, the latest developments in the energy markets could force the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, OPEC+, to cut production to support global prices.

With conditions already as tight as they are, this might provide a boost, says Warren Patterson, the head of commodities strategy at ING.

“The group will likely be getting uneasy with the degree of weakness that we have seen in the market and so there is the very real possibility that we see OPEC+ announce supply cuts in order to support the market,” he wrote in a note. “Clearly though, if we are to see cuts, they will need to be quite a bit larger than the 100,000 barrels a day agreed at the last meeting in order to have a meaningful impact on the market.”

In other energy markets, October natural gas futures tumbled $0.166, or 2.37%, to $6.848 per million British thermal units (Btu). October gasoline futures rose $0.0504, or 2.2%, to $2.3392 per gallon. October heating oil futures climbed $0.1069, or 3.51%, to $3.1533 a gallon.

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