Crude oil futures retreated from their highest levels in nine months as the latest US rig count weighed on the energy commodity. Despite the modest loss on Friday, US crude prices are still on track for a decent performance this week. Can US crude test $50 heading into 2021?

January West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures fell $0.19, or 0.41%, to $46.59 per barrel at 19:32 GMT on Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. US crude finished the session with a 1.1% weekly gain, paring its year-to-date loss to below 24%.

Brent, the international benchmark for oil prices, is trading relatively flat. February Brent crude futures edged up $0.01, or 0.02%, to $49.98 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange. Brent also recorded a 1.94% weekly jump, lowering its 2020 decline to below 25%.

According to Baker Hughes, the number of crude oil rigs in the US came in at 258 in the week ending December 11. This is up from 246 last week, and it represents the ninth straight week that the oil rig count has been above 200. The total rig count rose from 323 to 338.

On Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shocked financial markets when it reported that domestic inventories had skyrocketed 15.189 million barrels, defying the median estimate of a decrease of 1.424 million barrels.

In industry technicals, the physical market remained strong, with Asian refinery numbers staying strong and global floating storage levels on the decline.

The global crude market is being driven primarily by optimism over both the coronavirus vaccines and fiscal stimulus — in the US and abroad. Although there are still disappointing economic growth statistics worldwide, the consensus is that 2021 will be a much better year than 2020.

While demand is expected to increase gradually next year, there is a concern that US and foreign output could accelerate to take advantage of higher prices and prevent losing market share. This is being seen in the Baker Hughes rig count data, as well as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, OPEC+, tapering their production freeze.

In other energy commodities, January natural gas futures picked up $0.042, or 1.65%, to $2.595 per million British thermal units (btu). January gasoline futures shed $0.0088, or 0.67%, to $1.3078 a gallon. January heating oil futures inched $0.0017, or 0.12%, higher to $1.4374 per gallon.