US Dollar Flat As Investors Digest Recession Talk, Latest Consumer Data

The US dollar is struggling for direction to finish the trading week and month as recession signals flashed red on Thursday. But investors appear confident enough to dive into the equities arena and take a breather from the greenback for now. The latest data were mixed.

The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index advanced 6.8% year-over-year in June, the highest level since January 1982. On a monthly basis, the PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 1% last month.

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The core PCE price index also climbed at an annualized rate of 4.8% in June, higher than the market estimate of 4.7%. The core PCE price index jumped 0.6% month-over-month, slightly higher than the median forecast of 0.5%.

Employment costs eased slightly in the second quarter, but they were still higher than what the market had penciled in.

During the April-to-June period, the employment cost index (ECI) increased 1.3%, higher than the forecast of 1.2%. Benefits increased 1.2%, while wages swelled 1.4%.

Consumer sentiment improved in the final University of Michigan reading. This month, the Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 51.5, higher than the expectation of 51.1. The one- and five-year inflation expectations also eased to 5.2% and 2.9%, respectively.

Current conditions surged to 58.1, while consumer expectations dropped to 47.3.

Meanwhile, personal spending picked up 1.1% in June, while personal income edged up to 0.6%. The personal savings rate also collapsed to 5.2%.

coronavirusThe Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Thursday that the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.9%, lower than economists’ expectations of 0.5% growth. With two straight quarters of negative economic growth, the US slipped into a technical recession.

The US Treasury market was mixed to end the trading week, with the benchmark 10-year yield down 1.8 basis points to 2.663%. Also, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year widened to -26 basis points.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback against a basket of currencies, tumbled 0.05% to 106.29, from an opening of 106.35. The DXY will post a weekly loss of about 0.4%, paring its year-to-date rally to below 11%.

The USD/CAD currency pair was relatively flat at 1.2811 at 15:02 GMT on Friday. The EUR/USD was also unchanged at 1.0198.

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