US Dollar Index Extends Declines to Trade at About 97.23

On Friday, the US dollar index extended Thursday’s pullback to trade at about 97.23 after the latest U.S. economic data. The DXY trades within an ascending channel formation in the 60-minute chart.

Friday’s extended pullback pushed the US dollar currency index closer to the 100-hour moving average line. However, the USDX still has room left to run before reaching the oversold conditions of the 14-hour RSI.

The US Dollar Index Fundamentals Overview

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From a fundamental perspective, the US dollar index trades during a relatively busy period in the U.S. market. On Thursday, the U.S. jobs data for June came in stronger than expected with 147k versus a forecast of 110k, up from the previous month’s equivalent of 144k.

The unemployment rate for the month also outshone the forecasted rate of 4.3% with a rate of 4.1%, down from 4.2% in May. However, the average hourly wage growth for the period fell short of the forecasted (MoM) change of 0.3% with a change of 0.2%. The (YoY) equivalent also missed the estimate of 3.9% with a change of 3.7%.

Elsewhere, the initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27 fell to 233k, down from 237k in the preceding week, beating the forecast of 240k. The ISM Services PMI for June also exceeded the expectation of 50.5 with a reading of 50.8, while the S&P Global Composite PMI for the period beat the forecast of 52.8 with a reading of 52.9.

Earlier in the week, the ADP employment change for June missed the expected change of 95k with a change of -33k, down from 29k in May.

The US Dollar Index Technical Analysis (the 60-min Chart)

Technically, the US dollar index trades within an ascending channel formation. However, the 14-hour RSI has recently pulled back to avoid advancing deep into overbought conditions.

Therefore, the bears will look to extend the current pullback towards 96.69 or lower to 96.41. On the other hand, the bulls will look to pounce on profits at about 97.23 or higher at 97.50.

The US Dollar Index Technical Analysis (the Daily Chart)

In the daily chart, the US dollar currency index trades within a descending channel formation. The 14-day RSI also supports a bearish bias as it edges closer to oversold conditions.

Therefore, the bears will look to ride the current run of declines toward 95.82 or lower to 94.59. On the other hand, the bulls will look to pounce on rebounds at about 98.19 or higher at 99.43.

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