US Dollar Index Pulls Back Off 11-Week Highs on Weak Manufacturing Data

The US dollar index (DXY) on Thursday pulled back off the current 11-week highs of about 92.60 to trade at 92.53 after the ISM manufacturing data. The dollar currency index continues to trade within an ascending channel formation in the 60-min chart.

The pullback prevented the USDX from crossing to overbought levels in the 14-hour RSI. It remains several levels above the 100-hour moving average.

The US Dollar Index Fundamentals Overview

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From a fundamental perspective, the USDX is trading at the back of a relatively busy period in the US market. On Thursday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June missed the expectation of 61 with 60.6. The Manufacturing employment Index also came short of 53 with 49.9. On the other hand, the Manufacturing Prices paid and new orders index, both beat the expectations of 87 and 65.8 with 92.1 and 66, respectively. Elsewhere, the Markit manufacturing PMI for the period missed the expectation of 62.6 with 62.1 while the initial claims data for the week ending June 25 beat 393k with 364k.

Earlier in the week, the US ADP employment change for June outperformance the expected job count of 600k with 692k. Pending home sales for May beat the expected (MoM) change of -0.8% with a change of 8% while the revised S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for April outshone the (YoY) expectation of 14.5% with a change of 14.9%.

The US Dollar Index Technical Analysis (the 60-min Chart)

Technically, the USDX appears to be trading within an ascending channel formation in the 60-min chart. This indicates a significant short-term bullish bias in the market sentiment. The DXY pulled back on Thursday to avoid crossing to overbought conditions in the 14-hour RSI.

The bulls will be targeting extended short-term gains at about 92.71 or higher at 92.88. On the other hand, the bears will look for potential rebounds at around 92.34 or lower at 92.18.

The US Dollar Index Technical Analysis (the Daily Chart)

In the daily chart, the US Dollar Index appears to have surged to overbought conditions after a recent rebound. The DXY also seems to be in the process of forming a cup-and-handle pattern formation.

The bulls will be looking to capitalize on the upward movement by targeting profits at around 93.33 or higher at 94.15. On the other hand, the bears will target potential pullbacks at around 91.70 or lower at 90.87.

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