The US dollar is struggling for direction to finish the raucous trading week. The greenback, which has soared in recent sessions, will attempt to sustain the momentum on a tightening Federal Reserve, surging inflation, and mixed economic data. But the international reserve currency could slam into a brick wall on a rebounding stock market.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), personal incomes rose 0.3% in December, slightly lower than the median estimate of 0.5%. This was also down from the 0.5% gain in November.
Consumer spending tumbled 0.6% last month, matching what the market had anticipated. This is down from the 0.4% increase in the previous month.
Financial markets were all abuzz on the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the US central bank’s favorite inflation gauge, climbing at an annualized rate of 5.8% in December, up from the 5.7% boost in November. This is the fastest spike since 1983.
The core PCE Price Index, which strips the volatile food and energy sectors, advanced 4.9% year-over-year last month, slightly higher than economists’ expectations of 4.8%.
Meanwhile, US consumers are losing faith in this economy. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 67.2 in January, worse than the market projection of 68.7. Consumer expectations eased to 64.1, while current conditions fell to 72. Consumers’ inflation projection for January rose to 4.9%, while the five-year outlook jumped to 3.1%.
“One quarter’s data prove nothing, but with labor participation creeping higher, and measures of excess demand flattening in recent months, it is reasonable to think that wage growth is unlikely to re-accelerate dramatically,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note. “In the meantime, this report eases the immediate pressure on the [Federal Open Market Committee] to act aggressively; the sighs of relief from Fed Towers should be audible on Wall Street.”
The US Treasury market was mostly in the red on Friday, with the 10-year yield down 0.026% to 1.782%. The one-year bill dipped 0.005% to 0.744%, while the 30-year bond was unchanged at 2.091%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.2% to 97.06, from an opening of 97.25. The index will enjoy a weekly boost of nearly 1.5%, adding to its year-to-date gain of more than 1.1%.
The USD/CAD currency pair rose 0.14% to 1.276, from an opening of 1.2743, at 15:48 GMT on Friday. The EUR/USD rose 0.13% to 1.1161, from an opening of 1.1147.

