US Stock market Technical Analysis December 4, 2019

Deal or No deal continue to influence the market

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President Trump said possibly no deal and the market sharply lower. The global market follows the cue and moves lower. But, today there is unnamed Bloomberg source possible deal will happen. The stock market started moving higher again. It is a deal or no deal sentiment situation and expected to continue this month.

On the medium-term and long-term view, we could see the current downward movement as a correction movement and continue to think that the stock market will continue higher until major bearish triggers happen.

Asian & European Stock market

The Asian stock market traded lower after possible delay of deal between U.S-China. Japan’s stock market down 244.58 points (-1.05%) to 23,135.23, China stock market down 6.58 points (-0.23%) to 2,878.12, and Australia ASX 200 down 105.80 points (-1.58%) to 6,606.50. The European stock market rallying after Bloomberg unnamed source cited U.S and China getting closer for a deal. DAX Germany up 1.16%, UK FTSE up 0.18%, Euro STOXX600 up 1.05%

Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU)

Yesterday was bad news for DJIA as the index tumbled sharply and almost reached the daily SMA 50. It is a normal situation though as the index has printed fresh all-time high and might need a correction toward the daily SMA 200 before continuing further higher. As long as there is no close below SMA 200 then the index still has a chance to move higher.

On the other hand, if the index closes below SMA 200 then be prepare for a long-term bearish correction.

Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW)

We would like a pullback toward $160.00 but it seems the level is far from the current level. Below the current level, there is daily SMA 50 where traders could observe for a possible bounce. Traders could enter long positions near SMA 50 when there is a bullish reaction.

Union Pacific Corp (UNP)

It is decision time for UNP, either bounce or breakout lower will happen. If bounce happens then UNP will continue its bullish trend. But, if a further lower close below SMA 200 happens then traders could expect the start of a bearish trend.

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