The USD/CHF pair extends its losing streak for the fourth consecutive session, trading near 0.7940 during Tuesday’s Asian session. The Swiss Franc (CHF) remains firm as investors scale back expectations for further policy easing by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Minutes from the SNB’s September policy meeting revealed that policymakers downplayed deflation risks and dismissed any possibility of returning to negative interest rates. The central bank emphasized that its current stance remains accommodative, with the lagged effects of previous measures still feeding into the economy.

The US Dollar (USD) faces selling pressure as traders brace for the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision on Wednesday. Markets overwhelmingly expect a 25-basis-point rate cut, which would lower the target range to 3.75–4.00%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is now a 97% probability of an October rate cut and a 95% chance of another one in December. This dovish outlook has undermined the Greenback’s appeal across major pairs.

Meanwhile, the US government shutdown, now entering its fourth week, has fueled debate among Fed officials over whether to proceed with more rate cuts to cushion economic weakness or hold steady amid persistent inflationary pressures.

On the brighter side for the USD, sentiment in global markets has improved following renewed US–China trade optimism. Over the weekend, senior officials from both countries announced in Malaysia that they had reached a framework agreement on tariffs and key economic issues. This development paves the way for a potential deal between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping during their upcoming meeting in South Korea, which could limit the downside for the Greenback by easing safe-haven flows toward the Franc.

Overall, while the fundamental bias remains bearish for USD/CHF in the short term, upbeat trade developments could offer temporary relief.

Trade Idea:
Sell USD/CHF below 0.7950, targeting 0.7900 and 0.7865, with a stop-loss above 0.7985. A break above 0.7985 may shift momentum toward 0.8020.