USD/CHF remains under intense selling pressure on Monday, trading near 0.7760 at the time of writing, down around 0.70% on the day and marking its weakest level since September 2011. The sharp decline reflects broad-based US Dollar weakness, driven by intervention speculation and mounting concerns over the independence of US monetary policy.

The Greenback came under renewed pressure after reports that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducted a “rate check” with major financial institutions, seeking indicative exchange rates for the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. According to Bloomberg and Reuters, such checks are often interpreted as a precursor to possible foreign exchange intervention. This development triggered a swift reduction in long USD positions, as markets grew wary of potential coordinated action between US and Japanese authorities to stabilize or support the Yen. The resulting caution has spilled over into other USD pairs, accelerating losses against traditional safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc.

At the same time, the CHF is benefiting from strong structural support. Goldman Sachs recently described the Swiss Franc as the best-positioned global FX hedge against risks linked to central bank subordination. Beyond its classic safe-haven status, the bank emphasized the CHF’s resilience to global inflation shocks and Switzerland’s robust fiscal position. These factors reinforce investor confidence in the Franc during periods of political uncertainty and help insulate it from broader cross-asset volatility.

Adding to USD headwinds are growing expectations that the White House may announce a new Federal Reserve Chair as early as this week, replacing Jerome Powell. President Donald Trump has reiterated that the decision will be made in January, with several names circulating, including Kevin Hassett, Rick Rieder, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman and Kevin Warsh. Markets fear that appointing a candidate closely aligned with the administration could undermine the Fed’s independence, further weakening confidence in the US Dollar.

Looking ahead, attention turns to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. Markets expect rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% after three cuts in 2025. US Durable Goods Orders later today could add short-term volatility, but sentiment around the Dollar remains fragile.

Trade Idea:
Sell USD/CHF on rebounds toward 0.7820, targeting 0.7650, with a stop above 0.7900, as policy uncertainty and CHF safe-haven demand keep downside risks dominant.