The USD/CAD has increased and has resumed the bullish momentum, has managed to jump above some very important resistance levels, but we still need a confirmation that the upside movement will resume in the upcoming period. Has increased significantly today and looks determined to close the week above two crucial resistance levels.
Price has slipped lower in the last three hours, maybe because the United States data have come in mixed, the dollar could resume the bullish momentum if the dollar index will have the power to stabilize above the 99.12 level. Price could stay higher because the Canadian data have come in mixed as well in the afternoon, the minor drop is somehow natural after the impressive rally, could decrease only a little to recapture enough directional energy before will resume the bullish movement.
The Canadian GDP rose only by 0.0%, less versus the 0.1% estimate and versus the 0.6% growth in the previous reading period, while the RMPI dropped by 1.6%, more compared to the -0.4% estimate, the indicator has plunged after the 1.3% growth in the previous reading period, the IPPI rose by 0.8%, beating the 0.3% estimate.
The price has edged higher and now is trading above the upper median line (uml) of the minor ascending pitchfork and above the outside sliding line (sl) from above the upper median line (uml). Will increase further if will have enough energy to stabilize above the sliding line (minor ascending dotted line) , the next major upside target will be at the 61.8% retracement level. The long term upside movement will continue only if the rate will stabilize above the 50% retracement level, so a drop to retest this level will is still favored.
We’ll see what will happen in the upcoming week, but personally I believe that only the fundamental factors could invalidate the breakout above the mentioned resistance levels.
Personally I would like to see a consolidation here before will climb much higher because we’ll have a buying opportunity, is important to see what will happen also on the USDX, because a further drop will force the pair to retreat a little.