Wheat futures are extending their August rally into September as the agricultural commodity rallies on a weaker US dollar. But some analysts are skeptical that the crop can continue its upward momentum based on industry forecasts regarding record output in international markets.
December wheat futures surged $0.1375, or 2.49%, to $5.66 per bushel at 16:24 GMT on Tuesday on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT). Wheat prices enjoyed a huge 11% gain in August, bringing their year-to-date performance into positive territory by more than 1%. Over the last 12 months, wheat has rallied about 24%.
According to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) weekly crop progress report, 69% of the American spring wheat crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, below the 77% five-year average. The report also highlighted that 69% of the spring wheat acreage had been harvested, a 20% jump from the same time a week ago.
In the same report, 66% of soybeans were rated in good-to-excellent condition, while 62% of the corn crop was in good-to-excellent condition. These abysmal readings were expected by the market amid dry weather conditions in the key Midwest growing regions of the US.
The greenback’s descent further elevated commodity prices on Tuesday. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, dipped 0.03% to 92.10. A lower buck is good for dollar-denominated commodities because it makes it cheaper for foreign investors to purchase.
But not everyone is convinced that wheat prices can continue their rise based on recent estimates.
The International Grains Council (IGC) released its report for the 2020-2021 marketing season, and analysts predict that global wheat production will touch a record high. According to the IGC, wheat and coarse grains could hit 2.23 million tons in the upcoming marketing year.
Meanwhile, Europe’s wheat harvest is nearing completion, and the results are so far mixed. Germany and Poland have recorded reasonable wheat crops, while Great Britain and France witnessed a slumping crop ahead of the 2020-2021 marketing season.
In other agricultural commodities, November corn futures slipped $0.0075, or 0.21%, to $3.57 per pound. November soybean futures edged up $0.01, or 0.1%, to $9.545 a bushel. November coffee futures advanced $0.024, or 1.88%, to $1.3145 per pound.

