Wheat Extends Gains on Tight Supplies, Capped by Falling Chinese Demand

Wheat futures are climbing on Tuesday as financial markets monitor tightening global inventories. Investors are also paying attention to developments in other key markets, including China and Russia. Can the agricultural commodity sustain the momentum and test $8 by the end of the year?

December wheat futures advanced $0.0625, or 0.85%, to $7.425 per bushel at 15:44 GMT on Tuesday on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT). Wheat prices have rallied 1.5% over the last week, adding to their year-to-date gain of nearly 16%.

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The grain has been surging for four consecutive session, with traders homing in on shrinking international stockpiles. This has commodity funds turning into net buyers of wheat futures contracts, as well as corn and soybean, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Last week, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The October snapshot of the agriculture market found that projected ending wheat stocks were cut by 35 million bushels to 580 million bushels, the lowest level in more than a decade. At the same time, US exports stayed the same at 875 million bushels.

On the data front, China’s wheat imports cratered in September, crashing 44.8% year-over-year amid increasing global wheat prices and sliding domestic corn prices, new General Administration of Customs data highlighted.

Russian wheat export prices traded sideways following 13 straight weeks of growth. Moscow, the world’s largest wheat exporter, could boost its wheat crop to 80.7 million tons next year, up from 75.5 million tons this year.

In other agricultural commodities, December corn futures edged up $0.0025, or 0.05%, to $5.33 per bushel. December soybean futures added $0.1025, or 0.84%, to $12.3175 a bushel. December coffee futures picked up $0.025, or 1.24%, to $2.041 per pound.

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