WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for Feb. 22, 2021

WTI crude oil is trending higher on its 4-hour time frame as price lows can be connected by a rising trend line. A pullback to this support area might be underway soon.

The Fibonacci retracement tool shows that the 50% level is closest to this trend line support around $57 per barrel. This also lines up with the 100 SMA, which is above the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. The gap between the indicators is also widening to reflect stronger bullish momentum.

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A larger correction could last until the 61.8% Fib at $55.70 per barrel or the 200 SMA dynamic support just slightly below it. A shallow pullback could already find buyers at the 38.2% Fib at $58.16 per barrel.

Stochastic is heading lower to show that selling pressure is present, but the oscillator is nearing the oversold region to signal exhaustion. Turning higher could confirm that buyers are back in the game and that a move back to the swing high at $62.16 per barrel might follow.

RSI already appears to be pulling back up without dipping to the oversold region to show that buyers are eager to return.

Crude oil might be due to resume its climb as the cold weather is crippling supply while several production facilities had to be temporarily shut down in the Texas area. At the same time, optimism for the vaccine rollout and government stimulus could keep the commodity supported, along with other higher-yielding assets.

The upcoming EIA and API inventory reports could once again impact crude oil direction, especially if another draw is reported. Note that the OPEC has committed to its supply curbs, easing fears of a global glut anytime soon, while continued progress on the vaccine front could prompt an earlier return to normal business conditions.

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