WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for July 26, 2022

WTI crude oil could be done with its slide, as the commodity price is forming a double bottom on its hourly time frame. Price has yet to break above the neckline around $104 per barrel to confirm a reversal.

Technical indicators, however, are pointing to a continuation of the slide. The 100 SMA has once again crossed below the 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that there’s a chance the downtrend could resume.

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Also, stochastic has been hovering in the overbought territory for some time, indicating that buyers are exhausted. Turning lower would confirm that sellers are returning and might take crude oil back down to the lows around $94 per barrel.

RSI has a bit more room to climb before indicating exhaustion among buyers, so there might be more room for the rally to run. A break above the double bottom neckline could set off a climb that’s the same height as the reversal formation or around $10.

Crude oil traders are likely waiting on clues from the FOMC decision this week, as the Fed is widely expected to announce another aggressive tightening move. A rate hike of 0.75% to 1.00% is eyed since the central bank is scrambling to keep inflation in check.

In turn, this might translate to a selloff for commodities and other higher-yielding assets. After all, higher borrowing costs could weigh on business spending and consumer activity, thereby leading to weaker purchases of fuel and energy commodities.

The inventory figures from the American Petroleum Institute and Energy Information Administration would likely impact crude oil prices throughout the week as well. Another build in stockpiles might confirm that demand remains shaky, keeping investors worried about a possible recession triggered by higher prices of goods and interest rate hikes.

 

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