WTI crude oil is moving sideways, bouncing off the resistance around $52.50 per barrel and support at $56 per barrel. Price is at the middle of its range and may be heading for a test of support next.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, support is more likely to hold than to break. Price is already trading below the 100 SMA as an early indication of bearish pressure but might still be due to test the 200 SMA dynamic support around $56.40 per barrel next.

RSI is starting to pull up without even hitting the oversold region, indicating that bullish pressure might be returning. Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions and looks ready to move back up as well, reflecting a return in buying momentum that could take crude oil back to the range resistance.

Crude oil is treading carefully as market watchers await further developments in US-China trade negotiations. Recall that last week’s set of positive hints buoyed the commodity higher in hopes of seeing the tariffs lifted at some point.

However, fresh setbacks came up earlier this week that capped the commodity’s gains and it didn’t help that Trump’s speech brought a little more uncertainty back to the table. Still, a smooth “phase one” of the deal could keep crude oil afloat as traders continue to look out for clues that retaliatory measures could be rolled back.

Short-term catalysts include the release of API and EIA inventory data, with a large build likely dragging prices lower again. On the other hand, a draw or smaller than expected increase might assure traders that demand remains healthy and that oversupply isn’t a major concern just yet.