AUDUSD has formed higher lows and found resistance around the .6525 mark, creating an ascending triangle on its hourly time frame. Price is currently testing the triangle top and might be due for a dip back to support soon.

The 100 SMA has crossed above the 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance could be to the upside. In other words, there’s a good chance AUDUSD could break through the triangle top and stage a rally that’s the same height as the chart pattern.

Then again, stochastic is turning lower from the overbought area to reflect a return in selling pressure. If bearish momentum is strong enough, AUDUSD could fall through the triangle bottom around .6450 and tumble by the same size as the triangle or around 150 pips.

RSI is also pointing down without reaching the overbought area, indicating that sellers are eager to take over.

AUDUSD got a bit of a boost from the RBA interest rate hike earlier in the week, even though the central bank increased rates by only 0.25% and not the expected 0.50%. Gains were limited, though, as traders are bracing for the next major catalyst, which is the NFP release.

Expectations are for a slower gain in hiring of 265K versus the previous 315K increase. This should be enough to keep the jobless rate steady at 3.7% unless there is another big jump in labor force participation.

Average hourly earnings could tick higher by another 0.3% but weaker than expected wage growth might be enough to drag the dollar lower.

Not only would this weigh on the inflation outlook and policy expectations, but it might also convince traders that businesses and the jobs market are feeling the impact of higher borrowing costs.

Apart from that, any major revisions to previous reports could also dictate the reaction of the dollar to the report.