AUD/JPY Triangle Breakout on Jobs Report?

AUDJPY has formed lower highs and higher lows to consolidate inside a symmetrical triangle on its 4-hour time frame. Price is testing the triangle resistance, possibly considering a bullish breakout.

Stochastic is pointing higher and has room to climb before reflecting exhaustion among buyers, so the pair could extend its gains. A move above the 91.00 major psychological resistance could set off a rally that’s the same height as the pattern, which spans around 300 pips.

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RSI also has room to climb before reaching the overbought region, so bullish pressure could stay in play until the oscillator turns south.

However, the 100 SMA is still below the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. This could send AUDJPY back down to the triangle support around the 90.50 minor psychological mark and onto a bearish breakdown.

Earlier today, Australia printed weaker than expected quarterly wage data, suggesting softer inflationary pressures and lower odds of another RBA interest rate hike in their next meeting.

The upcoming employment report for April could determine where AUD pairs are headed. Analysts are expecting a slower pace of hiring at 24.8K for the month versus the earlier increase of 53K.

Weaker than expected results could further dash hopes of RBA tightening while an upside surprise could mean more gains for the Aussie on revived rate hike expectations.

Over in Japan, economic data has shown some promise, with the Q1 preliminary GDP reading beating expectations and the price index reflecting stronger inflationary pressures.

Although BOJ head Ueda reiterated that it is appropriate to maintain their pace of easing for now, the minutes of the latest central bank meeting suggested that policymakers are seeing signs of progress. This could mean that the BOJ might be approaching the end of their easing cycle soon.

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