USD/JPY Major Bullish Correction Underway

USDJPY looks ready for a pullback to the rising trend line connecting the lows on its 4-hour time frame, and the Fib tool shows more levels where buyers might be waiting.

The 61.8% level is closest to the trend line around 105.10 while the 38.2% Fib lines up with a former swing high and is near the 105.50 minor psychological mark. If any of these levels hold, USDJPY could resume the climb to the swing high at 106.24 or higher.

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The 100 SMA is safely above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the uptrend is likely to carry on. The gap between the indicators is widening to reflect increased bullish momentum, and the 100 SMA dynamic support is near the trend line as well.

Stochastic is indicating overbought conditions or exhaustion among buyers, and turning lower could keep the correction going. RSI is also heading south, so price could follow suit until oversold conditions are seen.

The US retail sales report is up for release and strong figures might be enough to sustain the climb of USDJPY. Weak readings, on the other hand, could spur a larger correction or perhaps a break below the trend line and a reversal.

There are no major reports due from Japan for the rest of the week, so the yen could take cues from overall sentiment and counter currency action. The dollar might be on stronger footing as traders anticipate more government stimulus that could shore up business and consumer activity in the country soon.

Both headline and core readings are expected to show a rebound of 1.1% in January after the earlier 0.7% and 1.4% declines, respectively. Note, however, that the actual figures have been coming in below expectations in most of the past releases.

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