The AUD/USD currency pair on Friday pulled off session highs of about 0.6780 to bottom at a new 6-week low of 0.6754 after a late resurgence by the US dollar during US trading session. The currency pair continues to trade in a descending channel, which indicates a bearish bias in the market sentiment.
The pair is now close to touching the oversold boundary line which could trigger the next rebound. The 100-hour SMA will provide a basis for the next resistance level going into the new month.
AUD/USD Fundamentals Overview
From a fundamental perspective, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading at the back of a relatively busy period in the US market compared to the Australian market.
On Wednesday, the Australian Construction Work Done report for Q3 showed a change of -0.4% thereby beating the expectation of -1%. However, Private Capital Expenditure missed with -0.2% versus -0.1% forecast while Private Sector Credit missed the expectation of 0.3% change (MoM) (Oct) with 0.1%.
On the other hand, in the US, Durable Goods Orders ex-Transportation for October beat the expectation of 0.1% with 0.6% while New Home Sales of 0.733M were better than the forecasted sales of 0.709M.
Housing Price Index for September posted a change of 0.6% compared to an expectation of 0.2% while Durable Goods Orders ex-Defense also impressed with 0.1% versus -0.3%. However. The preliminary core Personal Consumption Expenditure for Q3 missed the expected (QoQ) change of 2.2% with 2.1%.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis (the 60-min Chart)
Technically, the AUD/USD currency pair appears to be trading in a descending channel, which indicates a short-term bearish pressure in the market sentiment.
The currency pair has dropped below the current levels of the 100-hour and the 200-hour SMA lines while the RSI indicator shows that there is still some room to run down below before the next rebound.
Therefore, the bears will be targeting short-term profits at around 0.6754 while the bulls will hope for an immediate rebound towards 0.6780 or higher at 0.6790.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis (the Daily Chart)
In the daily chart, the AUD/USD currency pair continues to trade in a descending wedge, which again confirms the long-term bearish bias in the market sentiment. The pair is firmly pegged below the 100-day SMA and this will add bearish pressure going into next month.
Therefore, the bears will be targeting long-term profits at around 0.6721 or lower at 0.6672 while the bulls will target the next rebound with profit opportunities available at around 0.6837 or higher at 0.6913.