AUD/CAD Double Top Neckline Test, AU CPI Next

AUDCAD made a couple of failed attempts to break above the resistance near the .9200 major psychological mark and is now back to testing support at the .9150 minor psychological level.

A break below this neckline support could confirm the double top reversal signal, potentially sending the pair down by the same height as the chart formation or 50 pips. The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside, but the gap between the indicators has narrowed significantly to indicate a potential bearish crossover.

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Stochastic is moving up and has a bit more room to climb before reflecting overbought conditions, so buyers could still be in control. Once the oscillator heads south, though, AUDCAD could follow suit as bearish momentum returns.

RSI has more room to climb before indicating exhaustion among buyers, so AUDCAD could continue to climb until the oscillator reaches the overbought area.

AUDCAD could take cues from Australia’s CPI release, as a dip in price pressures is eyed. Expectations are for a drop from 3.8% to 3.4% in the headline reading, although some estimate a smaller drop to just 3.6%.

Stronger than expected results could underscore the RBA’s confident stance in their latest policy meeting, as policymakers reiterated that they are likely to keep rates unchanged for much longer than previously anticipated.

Still, higher crude oil prices seem to be lifting the correlated Loonie for the time being, as another round of attacks on Israel have traders worried about an all-out war. Libya already paused production in the eastern part of the country, reviving global supply fears in case tensions escalate.

Keep in mind, however, that Canada’s CPI reports already came in weaker than expected recently, raising the odds of another BOC cut soon.

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