AUD/JPY Double Bottom Breakout Looming

AUDJPY made a couple of failed attempts to break below the 78.00 handle and found resistance at 82.00, creating a double bottom on its 4-hour chart.

Price looks ready to test the neckline resistance soon, and a break above this could set off a rally that’s the same height as the reversal pattern. However, the moving averages just made a bearish crossover that suggests resistance might hold.

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Also, these moving averages line up with the neckline to add to its strength as resistance. This means that it would take a strong bullish catalyst to break above the ceiling and sustain a climb.

Stochastic is on the move up but already approaching the overbought zone to reflect exhaustion among buyers. Turning lower would mean that sellers are back in the game and could take AUDJPY back to the lows.

There are no major reports due from Australia and Japan for the rest of the week, so any big moves might be spurred by risk sentiment.

Earlier on, the RBA decided to keep monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, especially since the central bank already adjusted monthly asset purchases in their previous statement.

Meanwhile, the yen remains under downside pressure, as the Japanese economy faces fresh challenges on rising energy prices. The BOJ is also likely to carry on with its quantitative easing efforts for much longer since Japan is still recovering from the impact of the pandemic.

The upcoming NFP release might have an indirect impact on AUDJPY since it affects overall market sentiment. Strong data could confirm that tapering would take place in November and that a mid-2022 hike is possible, so this scenario might weigh on riskier assets like the Aussie. On the other hand, weak results could mean that stimulus might stay in place for a bit longer.

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