AUDUSD formed higher lows connected by a rising trend line that’s been holding since February. Price might be in for a correction to this area that lines up with the Fibonacci retracement levels.

The 50% level is in line with the trend line around the .7400 major psychological support. A larger pullback could reach the 61.8% Fib at .7350 while a shallow one could already find buyers at the 38.2% Fib at .7470.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that support levels are more likely to hold than to break. The 100 SMA is also near the 38.2% Fib to add to its strength as a floor while the 200 SMA is near the 61.8% level.

Stochastic is heading down to show that sellers have the upper hand, but the oscillator is dipping close to the oversold region to reflect exhaustion. Turning back up would mean that buyers are returning and could take AUDUSD back up to the swing high around .7665.

RSI has a bit of room to move south before reaching the oversold region to indicate that sellers are taking a break.

The Aussie could stay supported as the RBA had a less dovish than expected statement earlier this week, keeping hopes up for a rate hike later in the year. However, the FOMC minutes turned out more hawkish since policymakers confirmed that they’re looking to increase borrowing costs and reduce the balance sheet soon.

Data from the US has also been mostly stronger than expected, particularly on the inflation front, keeping the Fed on track with its tightening plans. Some expect the Fed to hike rates by as much as 0.50% in their next meeting.

Risk sentiment has also been in favor of the safe-haven dollar, especially with geopolitical tensions still in play.