AUDUSD has formed lower highs and lower lows, creating a falling channel on its hourly time frame. Price might be in for a pullback to the resistance levels marked by the Fibonacci retracement tool next.

The 61.8% level lines up with the channel top around the .7100 major psychological mark and 100 SMA dynamic resistance. A shallow correction could already find sellers at the 38.2% Fib near the .7050 minor psychological mark or the 50% level at .7074.

The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to confirm that resistance levels are more likely to hold than to break. The gap between the indicators is gradually widening to reflect strengthening selling pressure.

Stochastic is still pointing up to reflect some bullish pressure, but the oscillator is already closing in on the overbought zone to signal exhaustion among buyers. Turning lower would mean that sellers are ready to return and push AUDUSD back down to the swing low or lower.

RSI has more room to climb, so price could follow suit until overbought conditions are met.

AUDUSD could take its cues from expectations ahead of the RBA decision and the actual announcement. No interest rate changes are expected for now, but many are hoping to hear more guidance from the central bank on when they might start to tighten.

Some analysts are hoping to get hints about a rate hike in August, which might be a bullish case for the Aussie. However, it’s worth noting that RBA head Lowe has been keeping a cautious tone lately, casting doubts on whether they might even tighten at all this year.

Other potential catalysts for this pair include the leading indicators to the NFP and the actual US jobs report due on Friday. Slower hiring is eyed for January, which is typical for this time of the year, but an upside surprise might still boost Fed rate hike bets and the dollar.