Is the EUR/AUD Ready for a Big Breakout?

EURAUD formed lower highs and higher lows to create a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern on its 1-hour chart. Price is currently testing the resistance and could be due for a dip back to support around 1.6200.

The 100 SMA is still above the 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the top of the triangle is more likely to break than to hold. This could be followed by a climb that’s at least the same height as the triangle, which spans 200 pips.

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EURAUD is trading below both indicators, though, so these could keep holding as dynamic resistance. The gap is also pretty narrow so a bearish crossover could still follow.

Stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions or exhaustion among buyers, and turning lower could confirm that sellers are taking over. RSI has some room to climb, though, so there could be some bullish pressure left.

Australia reported stronger than expected jobs figures earlier in the day, possibly resulting to stronger demand for the currency. The economy added 178.8K jobs in October versus the projected 26.7K decline but the earlier reading was revised to show a larger drop.

The unemployment rate ticked higher from 6.9% to 7.0% instead of the 7.1% consensus. The labor force participation rate also improved, reflecting confidence in the labor market, although underemployment and the number of monthly hours worked increased.

Meanwhile the euro could stay under pressure since the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases keep rising. This could mean more restrictions for businesses, as well as trade and travel activity, which could keep the ECB in a dovish stance. There are no major reports due from both economies in the next trading sessions, so volatility could stem from risk sentiment.

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