EURUSD Breakdown and Trend Reversal

EURUSD recently fell below its short-term rising trend line to signal that a reversal from the earlier uptrend is in the works. Price has since retested the broken support, which is holding as resistance.

If this is enough to keep gains in check, EURUSD could resume the slide to the downside targets marked by the Fibonacci extension tool. The 38.2% level is at 1.1740 then the 50% level is at 1.1721. Stronger selling pressure could take the pair down to the 61.8% Fib near the 1.1700 major psychological mark or the 76.4% level that lines up with the swing low. The full extension is located close to the 1.1650 minor psychological level.

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The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the selloff is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. Price is still trading above both moving averages as an indicator of slight bullish pressure.

Stochastic is heading lower to show that sellers have the upper hand, but the oscillator is closing in on the oversold region to signal exhaustion. Turning higher could mean that buyers are taking over. However, RSI is just heading down from the overbought zone to show that sellers are just getting started and the oscillator has plenty of room to go before reaching oversold conditions.

The euro was previously under some downside pressure on account of the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in several parts of the region, but it looks like the prospect of additional stimulus is keeping the shared currency afloat.

Apart from that, dollar weakness on account of US election uncertainty appears to be drawing traders towards the euro, even when seeking safe-havens. There are no major reports due from the US in the next few days while the euro has to contend with PMI readings lined up on Friday.

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