EURUSD continues to consolidate inside its symmetrical triangle formation visible on the 4-hour time frame. Price just bounced off the top and may be due for a test of support soon.

The pair failed to make a break out of the formation during the ECB decision as Draghi and his fellow policymakers didn’t announce anything new. As expected they kept policy unchanged and Draghi didn’t clarify the rate hike time line during the presser.

He did have some positive remarks to say on the inflation outlook and acknowledged the trade truce between US President Trump and EC President Juncker as a step in the right direction. During the Q&A, Draghi noted that they haven’t discussed reinvestment yet and see no need to adjust forward guidance for now.

As for this technical setup, the 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This suggests that support is more likely to hold than to break or resistance might also break. Then again, the moving averages appear to be oscillating to signal further consolidation.

RSI is on the move down to signal that sellers have the upper hand, but the oscillator is also nearing oversold levels to signal exhaustion among bears. Stochastic is already dipping into oversold territory and turning back up could bring buyers in.

A breakout in either direction could lead to a selloff or rally of the same height as the chart pattern, which spans 1.1500 to 1.1850. The upcoming advance US GDP release might be a strong catalyst, especially since market expectations have been ramped up after Trump hinted that it could come in at 4.8%.

If so, it would be more than twice as much as the earlier quarter’s growth figure and significantly higher than consensus estimates. It could also boost Fed tightening expectations, which would be very bullish for the dollar. A disappointing read, on the other hand, could lead to a triangle break higher.