EURUSD is trending lower on its hourly time frame, forming lower highs and lower lows inside a falling channel. Price is pulling higher and is inching closer to testing the channel top.

The Fibonacci retracement tool shows that this lines up with the 61.8% Fib and the 1.1000 major psychological level, making it a strong resistance area. Price is currently testing the 50% Fib which lines up with the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point. If any of these hold as resistance, EURUSD could resume the drop to the swing low around the 1.0950 minor psychological mark.

Stochastic has some room to climb but is approaching the overbought area to reflect exhaustion among buyers. Turning lower would mean that sellers are ready to return and allow the selloff to resume.

RSI has more room to climb before reaching the overbought zone to indicate that buyers are about to take a break.

There are no major reports from the eurozone this week, so this EURUSD pair could take clues mainly from US data. This includes the core PCE price index, which is said to be the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, and the NFP report due on Friday.

The inflation report might show a slight dip in price pressures, but a stronger than expected read could bolster tightening hopes for the next FOMC meeting. Analysts expect the figure to dip from 0.5% to 0.4%.

The NFP report is also slated to show a slower pickup in hiring for March, but an upside surprise might mean strong gains for the US currency. Analysts expect a 485K increase in employment for the month, lower than the previous 678K gain. Note, however, that the past couple of reports printed stronger than expected results, and earlier figures have been enjoying upgrades.