EURUSD is trending lower on its 1-hour chart and is moving inside a shallow descending channel. Price is at the bottom of the channel and could be due for a bounce to resistance.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA for now to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, support is more likely to hold than to break. Then again, the gap between the indicators is narrowing to reflect weaker bullish momentum and potential bearish crossover.
If that happens, price could fall below the channel bottom and 200 SMA dynamic inflection point to set off a steeper drop. RSI is turning up after a close dip to the oversold region, indicating that bullish momentum might be picking up. Stochastic is in the oversold region and looks ready to turn back up to show that buyers could take over from here.
The euro is under downside pressure on account of ECB easing expectations but has still managed to gain some buying support on its safe-haven status. Still, among the two, the dollar has been drawing more safe-haven gains while the shared currency is also indirectly being bogged down by Brexit concerns.
The main catalyst for the US dollar this week might be the retail sales report due on Friday as this could give an idea of how resilient the consumer sector is and how future growth conditions might fare.
Earlier on, the US CPI reports turned out somewhat better than expected, with the headline reading coming in line with expectations of a 0.3% gain and the core version of the report printing a slightly stronger 0.3% uptick.
Of course risk sentiment would likely play a big role in pushing this pair around, as another round of trade risks could wind up doing the dollar more harm than good.