Last week, the U.S. dollar stabilized after staging a comeback. Earlier in the week, the U.S. dollar gained some momentum after the Non-Farm Payroll data was announced. The upbeat Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report also contributed to the Greenback’s momentum. However, the poor Producers Price Index (PPI) numbers pulled the U.S. dollar down a little bit. While the North Korea crisis and the war of words caused the Greenback lose ground against the franc and the yen, the U.S. dollar rose against the commodity currencies.
Some of the key U.S. economic data releases scheduled for the upcoming week include the minutes of the Fed’s meeting, consumer confidence, and retail sales data. There are some key releases from around the world as well. Here is an outlook on these releases:
#1: New Zealand Retail Sales (08/13/2017 Sunday 22:45 GMT)
In New Zealand, retail sales rose by 1.5 percent on a quarter-over-quarter basis in the first quarter of this year after the reading for the previous quarter was revised upward to an increase of 0.9 percent. The reading for the first quarter beat analysts’ expectation that retail sales will increase by 0.9 percent. Further, the increase in retail sales was sharpest since the second quarter of last year. The growth was driven by higher motor-vehicle and parts sales, food and beverage sales and service, and electrical and electronic goods sales. Forecast for the second quarter: 0.9 percent
#2: China Industrial Production (08/14/2017 Monday 2:00 GMT)
In China, industrial production rose by 7.6 percent on a year-on-year basis in June, higher than the 6.5 percent increase recorded in the previous two months. The reading for June also beat analysts’ expectation for an increase of 6.5 percent. The increase in June was also the steepest since March this year. Output increased at a faster rate in the Manufacturing, and gas, electricity, and water production sectors. Production fell in the mining sector. Forecast for July: 7.1 percent
#3: Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (08/15/2017 Tuesday 1:30 GMT)
The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of the monetary policy meeting eleven times in a year. Typically, the report is released two weeks after the announcement of the cash rate. It provides a detailed account of the most recent meeting of the Board and in-depth insight into the economic conditions that influenced the interest rate decision. If the minutes display a more hawkish tone than that expected by the market, the Australian dollar might gain some ground against other currencies.
#4: U.K. CPI (08/15/2017 Tuesday 8:30 GMT)
In the U.K., the consumer prices increased by 2.6 percent in June, easing from the four-year high reading of 2.9 percent recorded in May. The reading for June also missed analysts’ expectation that consumer prices will rise by 2.9 percent. This is the lowest inflation reading in three months. Prices increased at a slower rate for motor fuels as well as some cultural and recreational goods and services. The core inflation rate, excluding the prices of food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, was 2.4 percent and it came in below market expectation of 2.6 percent. Forecast for July: 2.7 percent
#5: U.S. Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales (08/5/2017 Tuesday 12:30 GMT)
In the U.S., retail sales declined by 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis in June after the reading for the previous month was revised down to a decrease of 0.1 percent. The reading June missed analysts’ expectation for an increase of 0.1 percent. Retail sales declined in the U.S. for the second month in a row. Sales dropped because of lower sales at miscellaneous retail stores and gasoline stations. Forecast for July: 0.3 percent increase
Core retail sales, which exclude autos, also declined 0.2 percent on a month-on-month basis in June after sales dropped by 0.3 percent in the previous month. Core retail sales also came in worse than analysts’ expectation for an increase of 0.2 percent. Forecast for July: 0.3 percent increase
#6: U.K. Average Earnings Index (08/16/2017 Wednesday 8:30 GMT)
In the U.K., average weekly earnings, including bonuses, rose by 1.8 percent on a year-on-year basis to £503 per week prior to tax as well as other deductions during the three months to May. In the previous period, the increase in average weekly earnings was 2.1 percent. The reading for May was in line with analysts’ expectation. However, this is the weakest increase since the reading for the three months to November 2014. Average earnings, excluding bonuses, rose by 2.0 percent to £473 per week after the reading for the previous period was revised upward to an increase of 1.8 percent. After price inflation adjustment, average weekly earnings, including bonuses, dropped 0.7 percent. However, the pay growth remained below the inflation rate for the fourth month in a row. Forecast for June: 1.7 percent growth
#7: U.S. Building Permits (08/16/2017 Wednesday 12:30 GMT)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the number building permits issued in the U.S. in the month of June rose by 9.2 percent 1,275,000 from 1,168,000 in May, the revised estimate showed. According to the initial estimate, the gain was 7.4 percent or 1,254,000 numbers. Forecast for July: 4.0 percent decline
#8: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Change (08/16/2017 Wednesday 14:30 GMT)
In the U.S., the crude oil stocks dropped by 6.451 million barrels during the week that ended on April 4, 2017, after the stocks fell by 1.527 million barrels in the prior period. The reading for the current week, however, came in above analysts expectation that the stocks would decline by 2.72 million barrels. On the other hand, gasoline stocks rose by 3.424 million barrels. Analysts had expected a decline of 1.479 million barrels. Forcast for the next period: 0.76 million barrels decline
#9: U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (08/16/2017 Wednesday 18:00 GMT)
The U.S. FOMC releases the minutes of the monetary policy meeting eight times in a year. Typically, the minutes are released three weeks after the announcement of Federal Funds Rate. The minutes provide a detailed account of the most recent meeting of the FOMC. It provides an in-depth insight into the financial and economic conditions that influenced the interest rate decision.
#10: New Zealand PPI Input (08/16/2017 Wednesday 22:45 GMT)
In New Zealand, the input PPI, or the prices that producers pay, rose by 0.8 percent in the first quarter of this year after it rose by 1.0 percent in the previous quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the input PPI increased 4.2 percent in the first quarter.
#11: Australia Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (08/17/2017 Thursday 1:30 GMT)
Australia added as many as 14,000 jobs in the month of June from that for the previous month. This is the biggest two-month rise since 1988. The number of unemployed people in Australia increased by 13,100. While the full-time jobs increased by 62,000 in the month compared to the increase of 53,400 in the previous month, the number of part-time jobs fell by 48,000 in the month of June. Forecast for July: increase of 8,900 jobs
In the meanwhile, the unemployment rate in Australia remained unchanged at 5.6 percent in June, in line with analysts’ estimates, after the reading for May was revised upward to 5.6 percent. The unemployment rate continued to remain at its lowest level since October 2016. The participation rate, however, increased to 65 percent from 64.9 in the previous month. Forecast for July: 5.6 percent
#12: U.K. Retail Sales (08/17/2017 Thursday 8:30 GMT)
In the U.K., retail sales increased by 0.6 percent on a month-over-month basis in June, beating analysts’ expectation for an increase of 0.4 percent. However, the reading for the previous month was revised downward declined of 1.1 percent. The growth was driven by sales in non-food stores. Sales rose by 1.8 percent from the previous month because of warmer weather and the introduction of summer clothing. Sales of household goods jumped by 3.3 percent. Forecast for July: 0.4 percent increase
#13: U.S. Unemployment Claims (08/17/2017 Thursday 12:30 GMT)
The number of American people filing for jobless benefits rose by 3,000 to 244,000 during the week that ended on August 5 from the revised reading of 241,000 for the previous week. However, the number of claims came in above analysts’ expectation of 240,000. In the meanwhile, the four-week moving average, which eliminates the week-to-week volatility, declined by 1,000 to 241,000. Forecast for the next period: 243,000
#14: Canada CPI (08/18/2017 Friday 12:30 GMT)
The Canadian dollar gained ground against major currencies after Statistics Canada reported better-than-expected domestic consumer price inflation data for June. On a seasonally adjusted basis, consumer prices remained at the same level as in the previous month, following the 0.2 percent slide in the month of May. Analysts expected the CPI to decline by 0.1 percent. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.2 percent on the month.
#15: Canada Retail Sales (08/18/2017 Friday 12:30 GMT)
In Canada, retail sales rose by 0.6 percent on a month-over-month basis in May after the reading for the previous month was revised downward to an increase of 0.7 percent in April. The reading for May came in well above analysts’ expectation for an increase of 0.2 percent.
Core retail sales, which exclude sales of vehicles, declined 0.1 percent on a month-over-month basis after the reading for April was revised downward to an increase of 1.3 percent. The figure for May, however, came in below analysts’ expectation for a flat reading. Forecast for June: 0.4 percent increase.