The U.S. dollar continued to remain on the back foot for another week. The Greenback suffered because of more chaos in the White House. Trump removed Anthony Scaramucci from his position as the director of communications in the White House communications last Monday just after 10 days of assuming the role. Health bill suffered another failure and contributed to the dollar further losing ground against other currencies. In the meanwhile, the euro gained further ground as the GDP growth for the Euro zone looked very encouraging. While the British pound wobbled after the Bank of England decided to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 0.25 percent, the USD/CAD pair took a pause as oil prices peaked. The Aussie too struggled after the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its forecasts. The key data released scheduled for the upcoming week include the U.S. inflation figures and New Zealand interest rate decision, among others. Here is an outlook on the major releases:
#1: New Zealand Inflation Expectation (08/07/2017 Monday 3:00 GMT)
As part of the inflation expectation survey, 100 business managers are contacted and asked as to where they see the prices of goods and services would be in the next two years. The report is released on a quarterly basis 30 days prior to the end of the quarter. The last report showed that the respondents expected the inflation to come in at 1.9 percent. Future inflation expectation has the potential to manifest into real inflation as workers could demand higher wages in view of the possibility of a price increase.
#2: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (08/09/2017 Wednesday 14:30 GMT)
In the U.S., crude oil stocks dropped 1.527 million barrels during the week ended on July 28, following a decline of 7.208 million barrels in the previous week. The reading, however, came in lower than the market expectation for a drop of 2.957 million barrels. Stocks of gasoline stocks declined 2.517 million barrels, while analysts’ expected a decrease of 0.636 million barrels. Forecast for the next period: 1.5 million barrels decline
#3: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate (08/09/2017 Wednesday 21:00 GMT)
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to maintain the official cash rate at the record low level of 1.75 percent during the meeting held on June 21, as expected by the market. With this, the central bank of New Zealand has kept the monetary rate at the same level for four straight months now. According to policymakers, the major challenges continue to remain because of extensive political uncertainty and persistent surplus capacity. Further, the GDP growth remained soft in the previous quarter and the house price inflation has seen further moderation. The central bank noted that the monetary policy will continue to remain accommodative for some more time because of the uncertainties. Forecast for August meeting: 1.75 percent
#4: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Statement (08/09/2017 Wednesday 21:00 GMT)
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand releases the rate statement eight times in a year. The central bank uses the rate statement to provide information about the monetary policy decision to the investors. The statement also outlines the reasons for arriving at the decision and provides a commentary on the prevailing economic conditions. More importantly, the statement discusses the country’s economic outlook and provides clues on future interest rate decisions.
#5: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Press Conference (08/09/2017 Wednesday 22:00 GMT)
Graeme Wheeler, the governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, is scheduled to participate in a press conference after the announcement of the official cash rate. The 30-minute long press conference has two parts: the reading of a prepared statement and a press questions session. As the questions could lead to unscripted answers, heavy market volatility can be expected.
#6: U.K. Manufacturing Production (08/10/2017 Thursday 8:30 GMT)
In the U.K., manufacturing production unexpectedly declined in May, adding to the feeling that the economy is weakening ahead of the Brexit. Output dropped by 0.2 per cent on month after recording an increase in the previous month. Analysts had expected the manufacturing production to increase by 0.5 percent. The largest contributor to the decline of manufacturing output was the car makers, who reported a drop of 4.4 per cent.
#7: U.S. PPI (08/10/2017 Thursday 12:30 GMT)
In the U.S., the final demand producer prices increased by 0.1 percent on a month-over-month basis in June after remaining unchanged in the previous month. Markets had expected producer prices to decline 0.1 percent. Prices for services rose for the fourth consecutive time. Prices for goods rose by 0.1 percent after declining 0.5 percent in May. Excluding energy and food, prices rose by 0.1 percent. Forecast for July: 0.1 percent increase
#8: U.S. Unemployment Claims (08/10/2017 Thursday 12:30 GMT)
The number of American people filing for jobless benefits dropped 5,000 to 240,000 during the week that ended on July 29 from the revised reading of 245,000 for the previous week. The reading for the week also came in below the market expectation of 242,000. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average, which eliminates the week-to-week volatility, declined 2,500 to 241,750. Forecast for the next period: 244,000
#9: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe Speaks (08/10/2017 Thursday 23:30 GMT)
Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, is scheduled to testify before the Standing Committee on Economics, House of Representatives, in Melbourne. Markets often remain volatile during his speeches because traders look for clues on the direction of interest rate in the future.
#10: U.S. CPI/Core CPI (08/11/2017 Friday 12:30 GMT)
In the U.S., the consumer prices remained flat in the month of June after declining by 0.1 percent in the previous month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, edged up by 0.1 percent as in the previous month. In July, CPI and core CPI are expected to increase by 0.2 percent, respectively.