The U.S. dollar traded weak last week as the progress made in the tax plan was rather slow. Worries about a delay in cutting the corporate tax cut also weighed down the U.S. dollar. Further, the Fed members who spoke last week did not change the expectations for an interest rate hike in December.
Meanwhile, the upgraded forecasts in Europe overshadowed the Catalan crisis. The pound remained stable in spite of the political troubles faced by the U.K. Brexit talks are progressing. Oil prices continued to advance after the breakout. The Canadian dollar benefitted from this.
The economic data scheduled for release in the upcoming week include the all-important U.S. inflation, retail sales, and housing figure. Here is an outlook on some of the key releases:
#1: Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks (11/13/2017 Monday 17:45 GMT)
Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan is scheduled to speak on monetary policy at the University of Zurich. As questions from the audience are expected, markets may remain volatile during his speech.
#2: China Industrial Production (11/14/2017 Tuesday 02:00 GMT)
Industrial production in China rose by 6.6 percent on a year-on-year basis in September after registering a 6.0 percent increase in the previous month. The reading for September beat analysts’ expectation of 6.2 percent increase. This is the steepest increase since June. Manufacturing and production of gas, electricity, and water increased, while the output from the mining sector continued to decline. On a month-on-month basis, industrial production advanced 0.56 percent. Forecast for October: an increase of 6.3 percent
#3: U.K. CPI (11/14/2017 Tuesday 09:30 GMT)
In the U.K., consumer prices rose by 3.0 percent on a year-on-year basis in September as was widely expected by the market. In the prior month, the CPI had increased by 2.9 percent on a yearly basis. The increase in September, the highest since April 2012, was driven by rising food prices and higher costs of leisure activities and transport. The core inflation rate (excluding energy, food, tobacco, and alcohol prices) came in at 2.7 percent and was unchanged from the five-year high recorded in the previous month. The core inflation rate was in line with analysts’ expectation. Forecast for the year to October: an increase of 3.1 percent
#4: European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Speaks (11/14/2017 Tuesday 10:00 GMT)
Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to participate in a panel discussion on “At the heart of policy: challenges and opportunities of central bank communication” at the Central Bank Communications Conference in Frankfurt that is being hosted by the ECB. Markets often experience volatility during his speeches as traders look for clues on interest rate decisions.
#5: Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Speaks (11/14/2017 Tuesday 10:00 GMT)
Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is scheduled to participate in a panel discussion on “At the heart of policy: challenges and opportunities of central bank communication” at the Central Bank Communications Conference in Frankfurt that is being hosted by the European Central Bank. Markets often experience volatility during his speeches as traders look for clues on interest rate decisions.
#6: Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks (11/14/2017 Tuesday 10:00 GMT)
Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, is scheduled to participate in a panel discussion on “At the heart of policy: challenges and opportunities of central bank communication” at the Central Bank Communications Conference in Frankfurt that is being hosted by the European Central Bank. Markets often experience volatility during his speeches as traders look for clues on interest rate decisions.
#7: U.S. Fed Chair Janet Yellen Speaks (11/14/2017 Tuesday 10:00 GMT)
Janet Yellen, U.S. Fed Chair, is scheduled to participate in a panel discussion on “At the heart of policy: challenges and opportunities of central bank communication” at the Central Bank Communications Conference in Frankfurt that is being hosted by the European Central Bank. Markets often experience volatility during her speeches as traders look for clues on interest rate decisions.
#8: U.S. PPI (11/14/2017 Tuesday 13:30 GMT)
In the U.S., producer prices for the final demand goods rose by 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis in September which was in line with analysts’ expectation. In the month of August, the increase in producer prices was 0.2 percent. Prices of goods rose because of a 3.4 percent increase in energy prices caused by a reduction in the Gulf Coast refining capacity due to Hurricane Harvey. Also, prices of producer services touched a five-month high in September. Forecast for October: an increase of 0.1 percent
#9: U.K. Average Earnings Index (11/15/2017 Wednesday 9:30 GMT)
In the U.K., total earnings of workers, including bonuses, grew by an annual 2.2 percent to GBP507 per week during the three months to August, the same rate as in the prior period. The reading for the month came in above analysts’ expectation of a 2.1 percent increase. Excluding bonuses, earnings increased by 2.1 percent to GBP476 per week. However, in real terms, earnings including bonuses dropped by 0.3 percent for the fifth straight month. Forecast for September: total earnings expected to increase by 2.1 percent
#10: U.S. CPI/Core CPI (11/15/2017 Wednesday 13:30 GMT)
In the U.S., consumer prices rose by 0.5 percent on a monthly basis in September after increasing by 0.4 percent in the previous month. Analysts had expected the CPI to rise by 0.6 percent. Consumer prices recorded the biggest increase in as many as eight months as gasoline prices zoomed following hurricane-related production disruptions at the Gulf Coast oil refineries.
Core consumer prices, which exclude the volatile energy and food components, rose by 0.1 percent in September because of slowing down in the increase in rental accommodation and a decline in the cost of new motor vehicles and medical care. In August, the core CPI rose by 0.2 percent.
CPI and core CPI forecast for October: an increase of 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively
#11: U.S. Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales (11/15/2017 Wednesday 13:30 GMT)
In the U.S., retail sales rose by 1.6 percent on a month-over-month basis in September, slightly than analysts’ expectation of 1.7 percent increase in sales. The reading for August was revised upward to a decline of 0.1 percent. This is the largest increase since March 2015. Sales of motor vehicles improved after hurricanes and gasoline stations received more revenues.
Core retail sales, which exclude autos, increased 1.0 percent from 0.50 percent in the previous month. The increase exceeded analysts’ expectation of 0.3 percent.
Retail sales and core retail sales forecast for October: increase of 0.0 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively
#12: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (11/15/2017 Wednesday 15:30 GMT)
In the U.S., crude oil stocks increased 2.237 million barrels during the week that ended on November 3, following the 2.435 million barrels decline in the prior period. Analysts had expected crude oil stocks to drop by 2.876 million barrels. This is the biggest stock increase in as many as seven weeks. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks declined 3.312 million barrels, following the 4 million barrels drop reported in the previous week. The reading for the week came in much worse than analysts’ expectation of 1.938 million barrels decrease.
#13: Australia Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (11/16/2017 Thursday 00:30 GMT)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate in Australia fell to 5.5 percent in the month of September from 5.6 percent in the prior month. The reading came in below analysts’ expectation of 5.6 percent. This is the lowest unemployment rate since May. The number of unemployed people in Australia declined 11,800, while the country added 19,800 jobs in September.
Forecast for October: unemployment rate 5.5 percent and 18,900 job additions
#14: U.K. Retail Sales (11/16/2017 Thursday 09:30 GMT)
In the U.K., retail sales dropped 0.8 percent on a month-over-month basis in September after the reading for the previous month was revised downward to an increase of 0.9 percent in August. The reading for the month missed analysts’ expectation for a retail sales decline of 0.1 percent. This is the biggest fall since March. Forecast for October: an increase of 0.2 percent
#15: U.S. Unemployment Claims (11/16/2017 Thursday 13:30 GMT)
The number of American people filing for jobless benefits increased 10,000 to 239,000 during the week that ended on November 4 from the unrevised reading of 229,000 for the prior week. The reading for the week beat analysts’ expectation of 231,000. The four-week moving average, which eliminates weekly volatility, declined 1,250 to 231,250. This is the lowest level since March 1973. Forecast for the next period: 236,000
#16: Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Speaks (11/16/2017 Thursday 14:00 GMT)
Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, is scheduled to speak together with Ben Broadbent, David Ramsden, Jon Cunliffe, and others in Liverpool at the Future Forum 2017. Markets often experience volatility during his speeches as traders look for clues on the interest rate.
#17: European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Speaks (11/17/2017 Friday 08:30 GMT)
Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank, is scheduled to deliver a speech on “Europe into a New Era – How to Seize the Opportunities” at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt. Market volatility can be expected during his speeches. This is because traders look for clues on interest rates.
#18: Canada CPI (11/17/2017 Friday 13:30 GMT)
In Canada, the consumer prices increased 0.20 percent on a month-on-month basis in September from the previous month as expected by the analysts. The increase in the inflation rate was by driven by rising transportation and shelter costs. Core inflation, which eliminates volatile items, dropped to 0.8 percent, the lowest level since December 1984. Forecast for October: an increase of 0.1 percent
#19: U.S. Building Permits (11/17/2017 Friday 13:30 GMT)
In the U.S., the number of building permits issued decreased by 3.7 percent in September to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1,225,000 in September from 1,272,000 in August. The initial estimate showed a 4.5 percent decline to 1,215,000. Forecast for October: 1,250,000