USDX (USD Index)

The Fed raises interest-rate by 25 bps as expected and boost the economic projection. Rate-increase backed by the strong labor market and economic activity also symmetric with annual inflation near 2%. The Central bank affirms there will be one more rate hike this year and three more hike next years. GDP outlook for 2018 raised from 2.8% to 3.1% while 2019 outlook revises from 2.4% to 2.5%.

U.S dollar index remains soft after the announcement but manages to gain to close near 94.30. However, the bull followed through in Asian and European session by bringing the index up to 94.50 and still continuing higher at the moment. We might see the index continue upward in the coming days/weeks.

News to watch

08.30 AM U.S Core Durable Goods Orders, forecast increase of 0.4$ m/m

Final GDP, forecast increase of 4.2% q/q

09.30 AM ECB President Draghi Speaks

04.30 PM Fed Chair Powell Speaks

For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 24 – 28 September 2018

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

Although news released favor U.S dollar bull, the situation in EUR/USD has not concluded yet. The pair has two scenarios to watch:

1. EUR/USD enters the lower range of 1.1580 – 1.1710 and traded lower to 1.1500 – 1.1580 then continue lower to confirm the long-term bearish trend
2. EUR/USD traded between 1.1580 – 1.1710 but manage to recover above 1.1710 and marching toward daily SMA 200 and test 1.1820 before challenging daily SMA 200 again.

Both scenarios are possible to watch and the nearest action to watch is the movement inside 1.1580 – 1.1710.

Today critical level to watch:

Support: 1.1650, 1.1600

Resistance: 1.1710, 1.1820

GBP/USD

The pair sloping downward after a bearish close in the previous day and ready to test support between 1.3000 – 1.3050. The breakout below the support area will trigger a bearish continuation in GBP/USD. On the other hand, if the bull could hold the pair above 1.3000, there is chance GBP/USD will make another test on the daily SMA 200.

Today critical level to watch:

Support:  1.3100, 1.3000

Resistance: 1.3125, 1.3250,1.3300, 1.3330

USD/JPY

The bull makes a touchdown on the level near 113.20 and reverses to close the day with a bearish engulfing pattern. It is a reversal pattern and currently the bear attempting to bring the pair further lower. A close below 112.50 will become the confirmation sign for the bearish engulfing pattern. Without a breakout, we project USD/JPY will trade between 112.50 – 113.20 and attempting to move higher.

Today critical level to watch:

Support: 112.50, 112.00, 111.00, 110.50

Resistance: 113.00, 113.20

AUD/USD

AUD/USD climbed to 0.7300 – 0.7330 when The Fed announce interest-rate yesterday. After the news, the pair reversed and closed near its opening level. Today, the bear followed through by bringing the pair lower. We could see valid rejection from 0.7300 – 0.7330 area and this could bring the pair to 0.7160 support level again.

Today critical level to watch:

Support: 0.7160, 0.7100, 0.7000

Resistance: 0.7300, 0.7330