Natural gas recently fell through the neckline of its double top pattern on the 4-hour chart, confirming that a reversal from the uptrend will follow.

Technical indicators, however, suggest that buyers could still have a chance at pushing prices up. The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to indicate that bullish momentum is in play, but price is breaking below the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point.

A continuation of the slide could lead to a drop that’s the same height as the double top pattern, which spans $4.000 to $4.200.

Stochastic is in the oversold region to reflect exhaustion among sellers. Turning higher could draw buyers back in and lead to a pullback to the broken support zone around the neckline and $4.000 mark.

RSI is also in the oversold area to show that bears could use a break and let buyers take over. Sustained bullish pressure could take natural gas back up to the highs around $4.200.

Natural gas could start losing support from the seasonal pickup in demand, as temperatures are starting to cool down in some parts of the US. Weather agencies are giving mixed forecasts for the coming weeks, so purchases of cooling commodities might turn lower as summer draws to a close.

The upcoming inventory report from the Department of Energy should shed more light on supply and demand conditions, as a large build in stockpiles might confirm that purchases are slowing. On the other hand, another reduction in inventory could signal that demand remains supported, likely allowing the commodity price to recover.

Risk sentiment would likely push commodities around as well, especially with the US retail sales report and FOMC meeting minutes lined up this week. Weak consumer spending data, combined with dovish remarks from Fed policymakers, could mean more upside for natural gas since stimulus could be kept in place for longer.