Natural gas is moving sideways on its short-term chart, finding support around $3.820 and resistance at $3.950. Price just bounced off the top and is halfway through on its move back to support.

The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that a move lower is likely. However, price is already trading above both moving averages, so these could hold as dynamic support at the middle of the range.

Also, the gap between the indicators has narrowed to signal weakening bearish pressure and a potential bullish crossover. In that case, natural gas could still bounce back up to the range resistance from here.

Stochastic already made it down to the oversold region to reflect exhaustion among natural gas sellers, so turning higher would mean that buyers are taking over.

Natural gas could take cues from the Department of Energy’s report, as a smaller build of 40 Bcf is eyed versus the earlier increase of 46 Bcf. A larger than expected build, however, would signal weakening demand as the summer season is drawing to a close.

Mixed weather forecasts have weighed on natural gas prices in the past week, although some agencies are predicting another temporary pickup in temperatures.

Market sentiment is likely to push commodities around during the end of the week also, as traders turn their attention to the Jackson Hole Symposium. During this gathering, top policymakers and financial authorities are likely to discuss stimulus measures related to the pandemic and whether or not it’s time to reduce these.

In particular, Fed head Powell’s speech could impact demand for risk and commodity price movements. Any confirmation that the US central bank is ready to withdraw stimulus by the end of the year could bring risk-off flows and weigh on natural gas.