Natural Gas (NATGAS/USD) Price Technical Analysis for Jan. 12, 2021

Natural gas could be prime for a reversal from its slide as price already broke above the neckline of its double bottom pattern. Price could climb by the same height as the chart pattern, which spans $2.300 to around $2.750.

The 100 SMA is crossing above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the climb is likely to gain traction. Price has dipped to these moving averages, which have held as dynamic support.

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Stochastic is pointing up to show that buyers are in control, but the oscillator is also dipping into the overbought zone to reflect exhaustion. Turning lower could mean that sellers might take over, possibly leading to another dip to nearby support zones.

RSI has a bit more room to climb, so buyers could stay in control, but the oscillator is also nearing the overbought region.

Natural gas is enjoying strong upside on the cold snap which would likely drive up demand for heating commodities. This is also keeping supply in check as a shortage of ships for exports is driving up prices.

The upcoming inventory report from the Department of Energy should paint a better picture of market conditions. Another draw in stockpiles would mean bullish moves for natural gas while a surprise build would suggest that demand remains feeble or that supply is elevated. Analysts are expecting a slight dip in inventories.

A pickup in risk-taking on account of the vaccine rollout all over the world is also keeping traders hopeful for a return to normal business conditions, which would also be positive for commodities. Worsening headlines on the new strain of the virus or lack of efficacy of some vaccines might dampen risk appetite and drive commodities like natural gas lower.

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