Natural gas is trending higher on its 1-hour chart, with price testing the rising trend line support that lines up with the 61.8% Fib.

Technical indicators are confirming a continuation of the climb, possibly taking natural gas back up to the swing high around $3.340.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that support is more likely to hold than to break. Price is trading below the 100 SMA as an early indication of bearish pressure, but the 200 SMA dynamic support could still hold as a floor in case price dips below the trend line.

Stochastic has been indicating oversold conditions for quite some time, so buyers could step in soon. Similarly RSI is in the oversold region and is starting to turn higher to suggest that bullish pressure could pick up from here.

Natural gas could take clues from the upcoming release of inventory data from the Department of Energy. Another large draw in stockpiles would confirm that demand continues to pick up now that summer months are setting in.

Forecasts of warmer temperatures in the weeks ahead could also lift prices, as traders anticipate even stronger purchases down the line.

Of course commodity traders are also waiting on the FOMC decision, as any changes to their policy bias or economic forecasts could impact risk sentiment. Many are counting on an upgrade to inflation estimates, which could suggest that the central bank is moving closer to tightening soon.

In that case, risk sentiment might take a hit as investors anticipate higher borrowing costs to weigh on business and consumer activity later on. With that, natural gas could take hits, along with other commodities.

Refraining from talking about taper plans, on the other hand, could keep risk-taking in play across the board and support commodity prices.