Natural gas is trending lower on its 1-hour chart, with the highs connected by a falling trend line that’s been holding since the start of the month. Price looks ready to test this resistance zone again.

The Fibonacci retracement tool shows that the 38.2% level coincides with the trend line to add to its strength as a ceiling. If sellers return right here, price could fall back to the swing low at $2.511 or lower.

A larger correction could last until the 61.8% Fib at $2.670 or the 50% level at $2.640, which lines up with the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point. This moving average is below the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse.

Stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions or exhaustion among buyers, so turning lower could mean that sellers are taking over. The oscillator has plenty of room to move south before reaching the oversold area. RSI is also pointing down without even reaching the overbought zone, which hints that sellers are eager to return.

Natural gas could take cues from the inventory report of the Department of Energy, although other market catalysts might also strongly influence commodity price action today.

For one, the FOMC decision will be announced and, even though no actual changes to interest rates or asset purchases are eyed, any shift in the Fed’s rhetoric could impact risk-taking. Indications that they’re open to hiking rates to control the surge in bond yields might mean some downside for higher-yielding assets as higher borrowing costs would limit growth prospects.

On the other hand, assuring that they’re not looking to change policy anytime soon might continue supporting commodities like natural gas.