Natural Gas (NATGAS/USD) Price Technical Analysis for May 11, 2021

Natural gas is trending higher on its 1-hour chart, forming a new rising channel and testing support. A bounce off the current levels could take price up to the next upside targets.

The mid-channel area of interest could hold as resistance around the $2.925 mark, but stronger bullish pressure could take natural gas up to the channel top near the $3.000 major psychological ceiling.

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The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA for now to indicate that bullish momentum could stay in play, but the gap between the indicators is narrowing to reflect slowing upside pressure.

A bearish crossover could draw sellers in and lead to a break below the channel support, followed by a reversal from the climb. Natural gas is already trading below both dynamic inflection points, so these could hold as resistance.

Stochastic is turning higher from the oversold region, though, so a return in bullish pressure could be in order. RSI also seems to be bottoming out without reaching the oversold area, suggesting that buyers are eager to take over.

Natural gas traders appear to be anticipating a build in stockpiles for the upcoming inventory report from the Department of Energy, as demand for the heating commodity likely took a hit.

Still, a surprise draw could signal that natural gas is able to benefit from warmer temperatures as businesses now shift to purchases of cooling commodities. A larger than expected build, on the other hand, could mean more downside for natural gas prices.

Risk aversion stemming from the pipeline cyberattack is also weighing on the commodity, along with the recent miss of the US NFP report. This could translate to weaker business optimism and lower consumer activity, which is likely to be reflected in the upcoming CPI and retail sales releases this week.

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