Natural gas has been on a tear in the past week, but the rally could be cut short as the commodity approaches a long-term ceiling. Price is closing in on the range resistance at $3.075.

Technical indicators are looking mixed, with stochastic indicating overbought conditions for quite some time. Turning lower would confirm that buyers are returning while sellers take a break, possibly taking natural gas back to the range bottom or at least until the middle.

The 100 SMA is still above the 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, there’s a chance that the range resistance could be broken, setting off a longer-term climb for the commodity price.

Then again, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to reflect weakening bullish momentum and a potential crossover down the line.

RSI has a bit more room to climb before reaching the overbought zone, suggesting that buyers could still stay in control until the range resistance is tested.

Natural gas saw a slightly lower than expected increase in stockpiles in the latest report from the Department of Energy, suggesting that demand for the commodity has been sustained.

Another small build or a draw in stockpiles for the upcoming report might mean more gains for the commodity, especially since warmer temperatures might have boosted demand for the cooling commodity.

Risk sentiment would likely impact natural gas movements throughout the week, especially with the FOMC minutes up for release. Any shift to a more hawkish stance among the policymakers could dampen risk appetite, as higher borrowing costs could keep a lid on business and consumer activity.

On the other hand, maintaining that interest rates could stay low for longer could allow higher-yielding assets like commodities to take advantage of stronger demand for risk.