Natural gas broke above the symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern on its short-term chart, signaling that an uptrend of the same height is underway.

Before that happens, price might need to pull back to the broken triangle top for a retest. Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool shows that this lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $5.800.

A shallow pullback could find buyers at the 38.2% Fib around $6.000, which happens to line up with a former resistance area. If any of the Fibs hold as support, natural gas could soon recover to the swing high at $6.340 or higher.

Note that the triangle pattern is around $1 in height, so the resulting climb could take natural gas up to the $6.800 mark.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that support is more likely to hold than to break. In addition, the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point is near the 61.8% Fib to add to its strength as support.

Stochastic is pointing down from the overbought area, though, so sellers might still be in control for now. The oscillator has room to slide before reaching the oversold region to signal exhaustion among bears, so the correction could keep going until that happens.

Natural gas inventories could see a larger build of 104 Bcf versus the earlier increase of 88 Bcf, reflecting weaker demand. After all, temperatures have been dropping recently, weighing on demand for cooling commodities.

Still, supply disruptions over the past weeks might have led to weaker output, possibly resulting to a smaller build. If that’s the case, the commodity could quickly resume its climb on expectations that the supply crunch could last much longer.

On the other hand, a larger than expected build might mean a larger correction for natural gas or perhaps a reversal from its climb.